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Matchup Analysis

Arsenal

Home
vs

Burnley

Away
Premier League
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 92.3%
X2 19.5%
12 88.2%
High
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
45.9% probability Expected: 2.49 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
70.8% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
33.3% probability Expected: 2.49 goals
Medium
🟨 Total Cards
Under 3.5 Cards
Expected: 3.2 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
73.1% probability Expected: 9.5 corners
Medium
🧤 Clean Sheet
Arsenal CS
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
80.3% 11.9% 7.8%
1 (Home Win)
80.3%
X (Draw)
11.9%
2 (Away Win)
7.8%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Arsenal
81.3% 15.8% 2.8%
Burnley
WINDRAWWIN
2.18 – 0.27
Expected Goals (xG)
21.6%
BTTS Probability
44.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
70.9%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
Arsenal Burnley
0.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.95
Arsenal Burnley
41.7 BTTS % 50.0
Arsenal Burnley
50.0 Over 2.5 % 41.7
Arsenal Burnley
5.46 Avg Corners 4.04
Arsenal Burnley
1.45 Avg Yellow Cards 1.64
Arsenal Burnley
2.67 Avg Shots on Target 2.76
Arsenal Burnley
58.3 Clean Sheet % 8.3
Arsenal Burnley
Head to Head (Last 10)
1
Arsenal
0
Draws
0
Burnley
18 May 2026 Arsenal 1 – 0 Burnley Premier League
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Arsenal Full Stats
9
W
2
D
1
L
1.67
Avg GF
0.52
Avg GA
41.7%
BTTS
50.0%
Over 2.5
Form: WWWLWWWWDDWW
Burnley Full Stats
1
W
3
D
8
L
0.82
Avg GF
1.95
Avg GA
50.0%
BTTS
41.7%
Over 2.5
Form: LDLLLLDLLDWL