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Matchup Analysis

AFC Ajax

Home
vs

FC Utrecht

Away
Eredivisie
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 61.7%
X2 78.7%
12 59.7%
High
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
45.8% probability Expected: 3.68 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
87.5% probability
High
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
33.3% probability Expected: 3.68 goals
Medium
🟨 Total Cards
Under 3.5 Cards
Expected: 2.8 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
78.9% probability Expected: 10.1 corners
High
🧤 Clean Sheet
FC Utrecht CS
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
28.3% 34.1% 37.6%
1 (Home Win)
28.3%
X (Draw)
34.1%
2 (Away Win)
37.6%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
AFC Ajax
24.4% 30.4% 45.2%
FC Utrecht
WINDRAWWIN
0.97 – 1.4
Expected Goals (xG)
48.4%
BTTS Probability
42.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
70.1%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
75.0 BTTS % 50.0
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
58.3 Over 2.5 % 33.3
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
4.73 Avg Corners 5.34
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
1.34 Avg Yellow Cards 1.29
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
4.2 Avg Shots on Target 5.02
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
25.0 Clean Sheet % 41.7
AFC Ajax FC Utrecht
Head to Head (Last 10)
0
AFC Ajax
1
Draws
0
FC Utrecht
24 May 2026 AFC Ajax 1 – 1 FC Utrecht Eredivisie
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
AFC Ajax Full Stats
3
W
7
D
2
L
1.74
Avg GF
1.16
Avg GA
75.0%
BTTS
58.3%
Over 2.5
Form: DDWLDWLDDWDD
FC Utrecht Full Stats
7
W
3
D
2
L
1.94
Avg GF
0.86
Avg GA
50.0%
BTTS
33.3%
Over 2.5
Form: DWWLWWDWDWWL