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Matchup Analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Home
vs

Villarreal

Away
La Liga
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 73.3%
X2 50.0%
12 76.7%
High
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
50.0% probability Expected: 2.84 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
83.3% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
16.7% probability Expected: 2.84 goals
High
🟨 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards
Expected: 4.4 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
78.9% probability Expected: 10.1 corners
High
🧤 Clean Sheet
No Clean Sheet
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
49.9% 24.1% 26.0%
1 (Home Win)
49.9%
X (Draw)
24.1%
2 (Away Win)
26.0%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Rayo Vallecano
46.0% 29.1% 24.9%
Villarreal
WINDRAWWIN
1.5 – 1.05
Expected Goals (xG)
52.1%
BTTS Probability
46.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
73.9%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
1.51 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
50.0 BTTS % 75.0
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
41.7 Over 2.5 % 58.3
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
5.8 Avg Corners 4.26
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
2.7 Avg Yellow Cards 1.53
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
2.32 Avg Shots on Target 3.62
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
33.3 Clean Sheet % 8.3
Rayo Vallecano Villarreal
Head to Head (Last 10)
1
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
0
Villarreal
17 May 2026 Rayo Vallecano 2 – 0 Villarreal La Liga
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Rayo Vallecano Full Stats
5
W
5
D
2
L
1.51
Avg GF
1.1
Avg GA
50.0%
BTTS
41.7%
Over 2.5
Form: WWDLWLDDWDDW
Villarreal Full Stats
6
W
2
D
4
L
1.33
Avg GF
1.33
Avg GA
75.0%
BTTS
58.3%
Over 2.5
Form: LDWLWDWLWWLW