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Matchup Analysis

Real Oviedo

Home
vs

Deportivo Alavés

Away
La Liga
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 64.5%
X2 70.1%
12 65.3%
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
54.1% probability Expected: 2.54 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
75.0% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
29.2% probability Expected: 2.54 goals
Medium
🟨 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards
Expected: 5.1 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
69.9% probability Expected: 9.2 corners
Medium
🧤 Clean Sheet
No Clean Sheet
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
29.4% 26.3% 44.3%
1 (Home Win)
29.4%
X (Draw)
26.3%
2 (Away Win)
44.3%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Real Oviedo
23.9% 25.1% 51.0%
Deportivo Alavés
WINDRAWWIN
1.25 – 1.89
Expected Goals (xG)
61.9%
BTTS Probability
60.7%
Over 2.5 Goals
83.4%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
33.3 BTTS % 75.0
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
50.0 Over 2.5 % 58.3
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
3.65 Avg Corners 5.52
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
2.33 Avg Yellow Cards 2.39
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
2.77 Avg Shots on Target 2.98
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
33.3 Clean Sheet % 8.3
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
Head to Head (Last 10)
0
Real Oviedo
1
Draws
1
Deportivo Alavés
17 May 2026 Real Oviedo 0 – 1 Deportivo Alavés La Liga
04 Jan 2026 Deportivo Alavés 1 – 1 Real Oviedo La Liga
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Real Oviedo Full Stats
3
W
3
D
6
L
0.87
Avg GF
1.45
Avg GA
33.3%
BTTS
50.0%
Over 2.5
Form: LLDLWWLWDLLD
Deportivo Alavés Full Stats
3
W
5
D
4
L
1.67
Avg GF
1.77
Avg GA
75.0%
BTTS
58.3%
Over 2.5
Form: LWWDDWDLLDDL