Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano — AI Prediction

Matchup Analysis

Deportivo Alavés

Home

Rayo Vallecano

Away

La Liga

Match Insights

🔄 Double Chance

All results

1X 50.7%

X2 83.0%

12 66.3%

High

🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals

UNDER 2.5

50.0% probability Expected: 3.18 goals

Medium

🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals

OVER 1.5

87.5% probability

High

🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals

UNDER 3.5

25.0% probability Expected: 3.18 goals

Medium

🟨 Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards

Expected: 5.5 cards

Medium

🚩 Total Corners

Over 7.5

87.5% probability Expected: 11.3 corners

High

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

X — Draw

Medium

🧤 Clean Sheet

No Clean Sheet

Low

✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy

🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High

28.3% 20.9% 50.8%

1 (Home Win)

28.3%

X (Draw)

20.9%

2 (Away Win)

50.8%

Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown

Deportivo Alavés

26.4% 22.5% 51.0%

Rayo Vallecano

WINDRAWWIN

1.57 – 2.2

Expected Goals (xG)

71.5%

BTTS Probability

72.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.0%

Over 1.5 Goals

Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied

Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)

1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.51