Matchup Analysis

Real Madrid

Home
vs

Athletic Club

Away
La Liga
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 82.5%
X2 27.8%
12 89.7%
High
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
OVER 2.5
58.3% probability Expected: 2.97 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
83.3% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
25.0% probability Expected: 2.97 goals
Medium
🟨 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards
Expected: 3.6 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
90.1% probability Expected: 11.8 corners
High
🧤 Clean Sheet
No Clean Sheet
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
71.4% 14.3% 14.3%
1 (Home Win)
71.4%
X (Draw)
14.3%
2 (Away Win)
14.3%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Real Madrid
75.6% 14.3% 10.1%
Athletic Club
WINDRAWWIN
3.18 – 1.19
Expected Goals (xG)
67.3%
BTTS Probability
81.0%
Over 2.5 Goals
93.8%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
Real Madrid Athletic Club
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.92
Real Madrid Athletic Club
66.7 BTTS % 66.7
Real Madrid Athletic Club
58.3 Over 2.5 % 58.3
Real Madrid Athletic Club
5.79 Avg Corners 5.96
Real Madrid Athletic Club
1.96 Avg Yellow Cards 1.52
Real Madrid Athletic Club
2.77 Avg Shots on Target 2.59
Real Madrid Athletic Club
16.7 Clean Sheet % 0.0
Real Madrid Athletic Club
Head to Head (Last 10)
1
Real Madrid
0
Draws
0
Athletic Club
23 May 2026 Real Madrid 4 – 2 Athletic Club La Liga
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Real Madrid Full Stats
7
W
1
D
4
L
1.89
Avg GF
1.31
Avg GA
66.7%
BTTS
58.3%
Over 2.5
Form: WWLDLWWWLLWW
Athletic Club Full Stats
3
W
2
D
7
L
1.08
Avg GF
1.92
Avg GA
66.7%
BTTS
58.3%
Over 2.5
Form: LDLLLLWLLDWW