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Matchup Analysis

Parma

Home
vs

Sassuolo

Away
Serie A
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
All results
1X 72.8%
X2 55.2%
12 71.9%
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
41.7% probability Expected: 1.94 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
62.5% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
12.5% probability Expected: 1.94 goals
High
🟨 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards
Expected: 3.9 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
56.1% probability Expected: 8.1 corners
Medium
🧤 Clean Sheet
Parma CS
Low
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: High
41.6% 32.3% 26.1%
1 (Home Win)
41.6%
X (Draw)
32.3%
2 (Away Win)
26.1%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Parma
33.4% 45.3% 21.2%
Sassuolo
WINDRAWWIN
0.67 – 0.48
Expected Goals (xG)
19.9%
BTTS Probability
11.0%
Over 2.5 Goals
33.2%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
Parma Sassuolo
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
Parma Sassuolo
41.7 BTTS % 58.3
Parma Sassuolo
16.7 Over 2.5 % 66.7
Parma Sassuolo
4.19 Avg Corners 3.94
Parma Sassuolo
1.47 Avg Yellow Cards 2.11
Parma Sassuolo
2.08 Avg Shots on Target 3.32
Parma Sassuolo
50.0 Clean Sheet % 16.7
Parma Sassuolo
Head to Head (Last 10)
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
24 May 2026 Parma 1 – 0 Sassuolo Serie A
03 Jan 2026 Sassuolo 1 – 1 Parma Serie A
Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Parma Full Stats
6
W
4
D
2
L
0.9
Avg GF
0.77
Avg GA
41.7%
BTTS
16.7%
Over 2.5
Form: WWWDDLLDDWWW
Sassuolo Full Stats
5
W
2
D
5
L
1.04
Avg GF
1.2
Avg GA
58.3%
BTTS
66.7%
Over 2.5
Form: LDLWDLLWWWLW