Mexico vs South Africa — AI Prediction

Matchup Analysis

Mexico

Home

South Africa

Away

FIFA World Cup

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Match Insights

🔄 Double Chance

All results

1X 87.9%

X2 30.6%

12 81.5%

High

🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals

UNDER 2.5

49.0% probability Expected: 2.75 goals

Medium

🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals

OVER 1.5

75.0% probability

Medium

🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals

UNDER 3.5

20.8% probability Expected: 2.75 goals

Medium

🟨 Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards

Expected: 4.2 cards

Medium

🚩 Total Corners

Over 7.5

78.0% probability Expected: 10.0 corners

High

🧤 Clean Sheet

No Clean Sheet

Low

AI Analyse

Ensemble Verdict: Mexico Win (36%). Confidence: Low. (Mexico 36% / Draw 30% / South Africa 34%)

Expected goals (xG): Mexico 1.27 - South Africa 1.23. Poisson: 36% / 30% / 34% (1/X/2).

Over 2.5: 46%. BTTS: 53%.

Recommendations: UNDER 2.5 (Over / Under 2.5 Goals); OVER 1.5 (Over / Under 1.5 Goals); UNDER 3.5 (Over / Under 3.5 Goals).

Form: Avg Goals Scored - Mexico 1.6 vs South Africa 1.15.

Generated from stats, Poisson model and signal analysis.

✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy

🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: Low

35.8% 30.3% 33.9%

1 (Home Win)

35.8%

X (Draw)

30.3%

2 (Away Win)

33.9%

Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown

Mexico

35.8% 30.3% 33.9%

South Africa

WINDRAWWIN

1.27 – 1.23

Expected Goals (xG)

52.6%

BTTS Probability

45.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

72.9%

Over 1.5 Goals

Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied

Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)

1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.15

Mexico South Africa

0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25

Mexico South Africa

54 BTTS % 48

Mexico South Africa

54 Over 2.5 % 44

Mexico South Africa

5.0 Avg Corners 5.0

Mexico South Africa

2.0 Avg Yellow Cards 2.0

Mexico South Africa

4.2 Avg Shots on Target 4.2

Mexico South Africa

25.0 Clean Sheet % 25.0

Mexico South Africa

Head to Head (Last 10)

Mexico

Draws

South Africa

No head-to-head history found.

Individual Team Stats (Last 15)

Mexico Full Stats

1.6

Avg GF

0.9

Avg GA

54%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

Form: WWDLW

South Africa Full Stats

1.15

Avg GF

1.25

Avg GA

48%

BTTS

44%

Over 2.5

Form: DWWLD