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Matchup Analysis

Netherlands

Home
vs

Japan

Away
FIFA World Cup
Kick-off in —
Match Insights
🔄 Double Chance
W1 Netherlands 47.7%
All results
1X 72.7%
X2 52.3%
12 75.0%
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals
UNDER 2.5
51.0% probability Expected: 3.0 goals
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals
OVER 1.5
79.2% probability
Medium
🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals
UNDER 3.5
20.8% probability Expected: 3.0 goals
Medium
🟨 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards
Expected: 4.2 cards
Medium
🚩 Total Corners
Over 7.5
78.0% probability Expected: 10.0 corners
High
🧤 Clean Sheet
No Clean Sheet
Low
AI Analyse
Ensemble Verdict: Netherlands Win (36%). Confidence: Low. (Netherlands 36% / Draw 30% / Japan 34%)

Expected goals (xG): Netherlands 1.29 - Japan 1.24. Poisson: 36% / 30% / 34% (1/X/2).

Over 2.5: 46%. BTTS: 53%.

Recommendations: UNDER 2.5 (Over / Under 2.5 Goals); OVER 1.5 (Over / Under 1.5 Goals); UNDER 3.5 (Over / Under 3.5 Goals).

Form: Avg Goals Scored - Netherlands 1.6 vs Japan 1.4.
Generated from stats, Poisson model and signal analysis.
✨ Ensemble Prediction — Enhanced Accuracy
🎯 Improved Model: Combines momentum (recent form), xG-based Poisson, head-to-head history, and team strength.
Confidence: Low
36.1% 30.1% 33.8%
1 (Home Win)
36.1%
X (Draw)
30.1%
2 (Away Win)
33.8%
Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown
Netherlands
36.1% 30.1% 33.8%
Japan
WINDRAWWIN
1.29 – 1.24
Expected Goals (xG)
53.2%
BTTS Probability
46.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
73.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied
Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
Netherlands Japan
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
Netherlands Japan
54 BTTS % 50
Netherlands Japan
54 Over 2.5 % 48
Netherlands Japan
5.0 Avg Corners 5.0
Netherlands Japan
2.0 Avg Yellow Cards 2.0
Netherlands Japan
4.2 Avg Shots on Target 4.2
Netherlands Japan
25.0 Clean Sheet % 25.0
Netherlands Japan
Head to Head (Last 10)
0
Netherlands
0
Draws
0
Japan

No head-to-head history found.

Individual Team Stats (Last 15)
Netherlands Full Stats
5
W
3
D
4
L
1.6
Avg GF
0.9
Avg GA
54%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
Form: WWDLW
Japan Full Stats
5
W
3
D
4
L
1.4
Avg GF
1.05
Avg GA
50%
BTTS
48%
Over 2.5
Form: WDWLW