How Probascore Models Work

Probascore is a multi-sport analytics platform. We publish calibrated probabilities — not tips disguised as certainties — and track resolved accuracy on our performance archive.

1. Data pipeline

• Fixtures and results synced daily from trusted sports APIs.
• Last 15 matches per team for form, goals, corners, cards and shots.
• League-relative attack/defense strength for fair cross-team comparison.

2. Poisson expected goals (football)

We model goal counts with a Poisson distribution from attack/defense rates and home advantage. That yields probabilities for 1X2, BTTS, and over/under lines.

3. Ensemble layer

A second layer blends form streaks, head-to-head where sample size allows, and market-implied prices to rank top confidence signals.

4. Calibration

Raw model output is adjusted so that when we say 70%, outcomes occur ~70% of the time over large samples. Read how calibration works.

5. Public accountability

Every resolved high-confidence forecast is archived. We do not delete losing picks. Use predictions for research — see responsible use.